NFL Playoff Picture 2026: Current Standings, Week 18 Scenarios and What’s at Stake in the Final Week
As the 2025 NFL regular season enters its final chapter, the postseason picture is almost fully locked in — but with plenty of drama still ahead. With 12 of 14 playoff spots clinched, the final week has become a critical gauntlet of high-stakes games that will decide division titles, playoff seeding and matchup pairings for the January 2026 postseason. Here’s a breakdown of where things stand and what could still change before the playoffs begin.
Playoff Field: Who’s In
After Week 17, most clubs know they’re headed to the playoffs — but some will be fighting for positioning and seeding. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos (13-3) and New England Patriots (13-3) have secured their division crowns, while the Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4), Houston Texans (11-5), Los Angeles Chargers (11-5) and Buffalo Bills (11-5) are all in as wild-card teams. The Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7) remain alive in the AFC North, with their Week 18 game against the Baltimore Ravens set to determine that division winner.
On the NFC side, the playoff picture is similarly well established. The Seattle Seahawks (13-3) and Chicago Bears (11-5) have clinched division titles in the NFC West and NFC North, respectively. The Philadelphia Eagles (11-5), San Francisco 49ers (12-4), Los Angeles Rams (11-5) and Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) round out the field. The only NFC division race yet to be decided is the NFC South, where Carolina Panthers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers scenarios will shape who emerges as division champion.
What’s Still at Stake in Week 18
AFC: Top Seed and Division Titles
Although Denver and New England have clinched playoff berths, the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs is still up for grabs. Denver can secure the top seed with a win in Week 18 or if New England stumbles. The Patriots can wrest the top seed away — but they must win and see Denver lose. Meanwhile, Jacksonville still controls its AFC South fate and can clinch the division with a win or a Houston loss. The AFC North may come down to a winner-take-all battle between Pittsburgh and Baltimore, with the victor earning the division and the No. 4 seed.
Those outcomes matter because first-round byes and home playoff games offer huge advantages once the postseason begins. A No. 1 seed not only gets a first-round bye but also the comfort of hosting playoff games through the conference rounds, a luxury both Denver and New England would covet.
NFC: No. 1 Seed and South Chaos
In the NFC, the top seed — and with it a first-round bye — is still unclaimed. The Seahawks can secure the No. 1 seed with a Week 18 win, but the 49ers could claim it instead by winning their matchup against Seattle. Depending on results, the Rams could also shift seeding — potentially moving into a higher wild-card spot if circumstances align correctly. Turf Show Times
The NFC South remains an unpredictable subplot. All three teams — Carolina, Tampa Bay and even the Atlanta Falcons— could theoretically factor into the division outcome thanks to a three-way tie possibility created by recent upsets. If Carolina wins its finale, it clinches the division. But if the Buccaneers win and Atlanta also pulls off a result that ties all three clubs, tiebreakers based on head-to-head and divisional results will determine the champion, keeping playoff hopes alive and the division title within reach for multiple clubs. New York Post
Seeding and Matchup Scenarios
With the field nearly complete, the emphasis shifts to seeding, which will determine first-round matchups and set the bracket for the 2025–26 playoffs:
- In the AFC bracket, Denver, New England and Jacksonville are poised to take the top three seeds if current standings hold, with wild-card teams like Houston, Los Angeles and Buffalo set to host lower seeds. If Pittsburgh wins its division, the Steelers could slip into a wild-card spot depending on tie-breakers and results.
- In the NFC bracket, the Seahawks, Bears, Eagles and 49ers look like strong contenders for top seeds. The Rams and Packers are poised to slot into the lower wild-card seeds, setting up intriguing matchups against top seeds. How each team finishes Week 18 — especially in cross-conference games — could shift those positions slightly, but at least one first-round bye remains unclaimed in the NFC. Turf Show Times
Once Week 18 concludes, the wild-card round is scheduled to begin January 10–12, 2026, with the divisional round the following weekend. Conference championship games are slated for January 25, and Super Bowl LX is scheduled for February 8, 2026 in Santa Clara, California. ESPN.com
What Fans Should Watch
With everything still on the line, fans should focus on a handful of pivotal matchups and scenarios:
- The AFC North finale between the Steelers and Ravens — a division title on the line.
- Seahawks vs. 49ers in the NFC West — a contest that could decide the conference’s top seed.
- Carolina vs. Tampa Bay — a dramatic NFC South finale that could reshape the postseason bracket.
These games, among others, will not only decide the final playoff participants but also determine how the bracket shapes up — potentially influencing Super Bowl paths and regional rivalries throughout the January postseason.
Final Thought
As the 2025 NFL season draws to a close, the playoff storylines promise to deliver a dramatic finish. With division titles, top seeds and wild-card positions still far from certain, Week 18 carries major implications for every team still alive. Whether you’re tracking the battle for home-field advantage or simply enjoying the tension of a winner-take-all finale, the stage is set for a thrilling conclusion to the regular season and an explosive start to the playoffs.
